Nigeria Economy Projected to Overtake UK and France by 2050
With the growth rate of 7.5 per cent per annum and all other things being equal, Nigeria’s economy may overtake those of United Kingdom and France on or before 2050, a UK-based Nigerian lecturer, Dr. Gbenga Oduntan has said.
Dr. Oduntan, who lectures at Kent University, UK, spoke yesterday in Abuja at a special lecture commemorating this year’s World Space Week put together in Nigeria by the National Space Research Development Agency (NASRDA).
He said with the speed with which the Nigerian economy is cruising, it is a matter of time before it overtakes UK which is going at a snail speed of 0.3 per annum, adding that the statistics from UK and other European scholars (economists) also suggested that Nigeria is progressing economically faster than most Western economies.
“Those that continually say most Nigerians live below $1 per day may not be right because majority of (poor) Nigerians still recharge their phones with at least N100 airtime almost on a daily basis or at least once in a week,” the don said.
“I don’t think someone who lives below $1 per day would be able to eat and still recharge his phone. That statistic is implausible,” he said.
According to him, Nigeria’s market is huge for almost everything and that make its economic growth unstoppable.
“The country also has a very large young population more than the UK and France and that make its prospect for growth even brighter,” said Dr Oduntan.
The don, who is an expert in space technology, development and law, also said if the country’s policy makers could use the ‘Leapfrog Theory’ by investing heavily on outer space activities, ICT and science, the country would be at par with the Asian Tigers in just few years time. He said the $20 million Nigeria spends on space technology might be too small because some countries invest about $200 billion on it.
Interesting analysis by Dr. Oduntan. To buttress his points, in a separate analysis carried out by authors John Hawksworth and Gordon Cookson on behalf of PriceWaterHouseCoopers (PWC), read their summary in the study with the title ….The world in 2050 – Beyond the BRICs: A broader look at emerging market growth prospects.
Here we take the 17 largest economies and add in 13 emerging economies (including Nigeria) to create the ‘PwC 30’ grouping of countries accounts for around 85% of world economic output. Some of the highlighted projections of this analysis:
By 2050, the E7 emerging economies will be around 50% larger than the current G7 (US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada)
China is expected to overtake the US as the largest economy around 2025
India has the potential to nearly catch up with the US by 2050
The projected list of fastest growing economies to 2050 is headed by Vietnam, and the top 10 includes Nigeria, Philippines, Egypt and Bangladesh
In the words of the report’s joint authors, John Hawksworth and Gordon Cookson: “The general message is that investors with long-time horizons should look beyond the BRICs — there are many other alternatives worth considering depending on the nature of the investment and the risk tolerance of the investor.”
Read excerpts from the study below.
Very interesting but the cynical side of me says there must be an enabling business and political environment to make this happen coupled with the people. Also the FG will need to create a level playing field and give both foreign and indigenous investors incentives to invest. It is dangerous long term to have a lopsided economic plan to attract investors.